I usually narrow it down to just one, but I just see a lot of value in two different spots this week. First things first. The New Orleans Saints' have been dominant in the last three weeks. It's mostly been their defense, which has been a slightly different personnel, since week 3. They have had Ken Crawley in at CB, and as of the last game, they've had LB, Craig Robertson, in place of the rookie, Anzalone. I don't know why Robertson wasn't the starter in the first place, because he is a beast! I'm really not surprised at all, by the way the Saints defense is playing. This is more like the team I expected to see, before the season started. I think their offense needs to be more consistent, and I think it will, because it has continued to grow, so far. They really are a contender in this weak conference, and watery league. I know the game they got this week is tricky, because they are going against a new QB, they know little about, and it will be rainy and wet in Lambeau. I don't think way too much of the Packers, and that's with Aaron Rodgers. While they were a good NFC team, I thought the Saints could beat them with Rodgers, because I think they match up well with them. Their front seven on defense is pretty solid, but doesn't make up too much for their horrid secondary. The Packers have some good WR's but not much of any running game, and without AR, they will lose at least 3-4 more games, in my opinion. He literally took this weak squad on his shoulders, and led them to an NFC title game, last year after starting like 4-6. He is arguably the best player in football, and will be impossible to replace. Brett Hundley does have some athletic ability, and a strong arm, but very little experience in this league. He may be able to have some glimpses, because I'm sure they will have a gameplan suitable for him, but the Packers can't rely too much on their running game. I think the Saints can get Mark Ingram going again, and use the short passing game, as well as run some simple routes with Michael Thomas, who could have a big game. Hundley played most of the game, last week in Minnesota, and threw 3 INT's, and a TD. Now, New Orleans' defense isn't as nasty as the Vikings', but it's not going to be an easy task for this kid, in just his first start
SAINTS -5.5 at PACKERS
** NEW ORLEANS -5.5
PREDICTED SCORE : SAINTS 29 PACKERS 16
I'm also going to be backing the Jaguars, going into Indianapolis this week, laying 3. A bad team, in the Colts, off of a short week. I'll take it. Jacksonville coming off of a loss this year. I'll take it!. The Jags have bounced back every time, this year, and I don't see why they don't here, either. Their defense should be able to get some TO's out of Brissette. I also don't see Indy stopping Fournette. I see Jacsonville winning this game comfortably.
JAGUARS -3(-125) at COLTS
**JACKSONVILLE -3
Thursday, October 19, 2017
Thursday, October 12, 2017
NFL WEEK 6 PLAY
*** PITTSBURGH +4 at KANSAS CITY
I'm going against the Chiefs again, because they are going to lose, eventually, and what better team to do it, than a team that they just don't match up well with. The Steelers are coming off of a piss poor performance, last week, at home vs the Jags. Jacksonville has a good, young defense and team, that was hard to prepare for. Pitt lost to Philly 34-3, and 30-15 to Miami, last year, within the first six weeks of the season. They also lost Big Ben to an injury, for a few games, and lost three more games in a row. They still ended up being a contender with an AFC Championship game appearance. So, I think they'll be just fine. After that bad loss to a new look, young Eagles team , who had a tough defense, they bounced back big. The next week they beat,(who do you know), the Kansas City Chiefs, by 29, on Primetime. They also ended up sweeping them, by beating them in Arrowhead, in the Divisional Play-Off, after the Chiefs had a bye week. I do realize that was last year, but these teams are very similar. The Chiefs have a decent defense, but have been giving up a good amount of yards and points. Their offense has been on fire, but they haven't played a defense as stout as the Steelers' yet. KC is also banged up after that Texans game. Kelce may not even play, due to a concussion, in the last game. If he does, I'm fine with it, because he could get knocked out again, going down the middle of that Pittsburgh secondary. I don't think Ben is done, he just played the worst game of his career, and I believe he will bounce back this week. The Steelers just need to get back to running the ball, getting Bell involved in the passing game and throwing deep. I think they will do that Sunday in Kansas City. If KC is able to win this game, I don't see it being by more than 3-4 points. I'm calling for Pittsburgh to hand them their first loss.
I'm going against the Chiefs again, because they are going to lose, eventually, and what better team to do it, than a team that they just don't match up well with. The Steelers are coming off of a piss poor performance, last week, at home vs the Jags. Jacksonville has a good, young defense and team, that was hard to prepare for. Pitt lost to Philly 34-3, and 30-15 to Miami, last year, within the first six weeks of the season. They also lost Big Ben to an injury, for a few games, and lost three more games in a row. They still ended up being a contender with an AFC Championship game appearance. So, I think they'll be just fine. After that bad loss to a new look, young Eagles team , who had a tough defense, they bounced back big. The next week they beat,(who do you know), the Kansas City Chiefs, by 29, on Primetime. They also ended up sweeping them, by beating them in Arrowhead, in the Divisional Play-Off, after the Chiefs had a bye week. I do realize that was last year, but these teams are very similar. The Chiefs have a decent defense, but have been giving up a good amount of yards and points. Their offense has been on fire, but they haven't played a defense as stout as the Steelers' yet. KC is also banged up after that Texans game. Kelce may not even play, due to a concussion, in the last game. If he does, I'm fine with it, because he could get knocked out again, going down the middle of that Pittsburgh secondary. I don't think Ben is done, he just played the worst game of his career, and I believe he will bounce back this week. The Steelers just need to get back to running the ball, getting Bell involved in the passing game and throwing deep. I think they will do that Sunday in Kansas City. If KC is able to win this game, I don't see it being by more than 3-4 points. I'm calling for Pittsburgh to hand them their first loss.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7 PLAY
2 TEAM 6 POINT TEASER : AUBURN -1 at LSU
TEXAS A&M +9 at FLORIDA
Last week LSU played a game against Florida that they had circled for a while. It was a must win, and really like their championship game. I'm sure they gave it all they had, and played a good game, but were lucky to come out alive. If Florida's kicker doesn't miss the PAT, who knows what would have happened. Just like they circled the Florida game, I circled this Auburn at LSU game, before the season started. I knew, coming into this season, that Auburn was going to be a much better team than LSU. I was predicting that Auburn breaks their streak of losing in Death Valley since '99. I knew that this game was going to be an opportunity to make some fuckin money! Looking at injuries, though, I am a little skeptical of laying the 7 points. Auburn is banged up on the O line and in the secondary. I am also considering the mental factor of them having to get a big monkey off their back. I honestly think they'll be well prepared and focused, and I recommend laying the lumber with Auburn, if backing a side, because I think they'll win something like 27-9. I've decided to play it safe, and tease it, by going with two things that I see definitely happening Saturday. Auburn will beat LSU and Texas A& M will be a tough game for Florida. The Gators have been exposed, a little, in the first six weeks of this season, as being not that good. The Aggies are a very young team, who has been getting a lot better, and playing good football lately. If Florida were to beat them, I don't see it being by more than about 3-7 points, and that's a big fat IF. I lean for A&M to win here, so play on this.
TEXAS A&M +9 at FLORIDA
Last week LSU played a game against Florida that they had circled for a while. It was a must win, and really like their championship game. I'm sure they gave it all they had, and played a good game, but were lucky to come out alive. If Florida's kicker doesn't miss the PAT, who knows what would have happened. Just like they circled the Florida game, I circled this Auburn at LSU game, before the season started. I knew, coming into this season, that Auburn was going to be a much better team than LSU. I was predicting that Auburn breaks their streak of losing in Death Valley since '99. I knew that this game was going to be an opportunity to make some fuckin money! Looking at injuries, though, I am a little skeptical of laying the 7 points. Auburn is banged up on the O line and in the secondary. I am also considering the mental factor of them having to get a big monkey off their back. I honestly think they'll be well prepared and focused, and I recommend laying the lumber with Auburn, if backing a side, because I think they'll win something like 27-9. I've decided to play it safe, and tease it, by going with two things that I see definitely happening Saturday. Auburn will beat LSU and Texas A& M will be a tough game for Florida. The Gators have been exposed, a little, in the first six weeks of this season, as being not that good. The Aggies are a very young team, who has been getting a lot better, and playing good football lately. If Florida were to beat them, I don't see it being by more than about 3-7 points, and that's a big fat IF. I lean for A&M to win here, so play on this.
Thursday, September 21, 2017
WEEK 3 NFL PLAY
*** DENVER -3 at BUFFALO
I would like to start off by saying that John Elway is one of the best General Mangers in the NFL, that I've ever seen. He makes the right moves, and it works, and it seems to be working very well, lately. They still have a championship defense, and their QB is playing some good football. This game is kind of like last week, when I had Clemson -3 on the road vs Louisville. There were skeptics that thought the line was "fishy". Well, I believe if you know your shit, which means knowing the teams, the players, the circumstances and how this league works, you should know why the line is what it is. This is a short line, because it's a very long trip for the Broncos, and road wins do not come easy in professional football. The Bills also have a good secondary and a decent overall defense. If they have a weakness on defense, though, it is the run D. I don't see them stopping Denver's run game, because there's not too many teams in the league that can, to begin with. Denver also has some very good receivers. One of the main reasons I like this game, is because I just can't see this Bills offense doing much of anything on Denver's defense. Tyrod is an alright player, and that's all I will say. He can manage some games well, but can't win you much. He has a good running game, still, but not an abundance of weapons to throw to. I don't see him faring too well on Sunday. The Broncos should be able to score some, too.
PREDICTED SCORE : BRONCOS 20 BILLS 12
I would like to start off by saying that John Elway is one of the best General Mangers in the NFL, that I've ever seen. He makes the right moves, and it works, and it seems to be working very well, lately. They still have a championship defense, and their QB is playing some good football. This game is kind of like last week, when I had Clemson -3 on the road vs Louisville. There were skeptics that thought the line was "fishy". Well, I believe if you know your shit, which means knowing the teams, the players, the circumstances and how this league works, you should know why the line is what it is. This is a short line, because it's a very long trip for the Broncos, and road wins do not come easy in professional football. The Bills also have a good secondary and a decent overall defense. If they have a weakness on defense, though, it is the run D. I don't see them stopping Denver's run game, because there's not too many teams in the league that can, to begin with. Denver also has some very good receivers. One of the main reasons I like this game, is because I just can't see this Bills offense doing much of anything on Denver's defense. Tyrod is an alright player, and that's all I will say. He can manage some games well, but can't win you much. He has a good running game, still, but not an abundance of weapons to throw to. I don't see him faring too well on Sunday. The Broncos should be able to score some, too.
PREDICTED SCORE : BRONCOS 20 BILLS 12
Thursday, September 14, 2017
ANOTHER NFL WEEK 2 PLAY
**** MINNESOTA +7(-105) AT PITTSBURGH
I never want to react to just one game, in football, and I'm not. I did see a lot from Minnesota in their home opener, though. I expected this team to be a play-off team, and potentially go 11-5. I look at what they did in 2015, when they went 11-5 with Teddy Bridgewater in at QB. They had AP, who had 1,485 on the ground that year. They were very well balanced. Now, I think I definitely overestimated the Saints, but the Vikings' receiving core has definitely gotten better. Diggs has turned into a good WR, and Thielen is really solid, too. They both had almost 1,000 yards receiving last year, and that was with no running game, so they were keyed on more. Just think what they can do this year, having this 1-2 punch at RB, and being able to keep defenses modest. This Vikings team reminds me a lot of the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. They have a nasty defense, which could be the best in the league this year, because I really don't see a weakness. They have a very good, game managing QB, and a great running game. For all the Bradford doubters, still out there, I will say that he led the league in completion percentage last year(71%), and only threw 5 INT's. That's pretty impressive when you have no other dimension to your offense. Their WR's aren't spectacular, but very solid. I know it's early, but this team is my favorite to win the NFC, now. I think the Steelers are a good team, but I see the Vikings going into Pittsburgh on a short week, and beating them. I'm taking the ML too.
PREDICTED SCORE : VIKINGS 24 STEELERS 19
**** MINNESOTA +7(-105) AT PITTSBURGH
I never want to react to just one game, in football, and I'm not. I did see a lot from Minnesota in their home opener, though. I expected this team to be a play-off team, and potentially go 11-5. I look at what they did in 2015, when they went 11-5 with Teddy Bridgewater in at QB. They had AP, who had 1,485 on the ground that year. They were very well balanced. Now, I think I definitely overestimated the Saints, but the Vikings' receiving core has definitely gotten better. Diggs has turned into a good WR, and Thielen is really solid, too. They both had almost 1,000 yards receiving last year, and that was with no running game, so they were keyed on more. Just think what they can do this year, having this 1-2 punch at RB, and being able to keep defenses modest. This Vikings team reminds me a lot of the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. They have a nasty defense, which could be the best in the league this year, because I really don't see a weakness. They have a very good, game managing QB, and a great running game. For all the Bradford doubters, still out there, I will say that he led the league in completion percentage last year(71%), and only threw 5 INT's. That's pretty impressive when you have no other dimension to your offense. Their WR's aren't spectacular, but very solid. I know it's early, but this team is my favorite to win the NFC, now. I think the Steelers are a good team, but I see the Vikings going into Pittsburgh on a short week, and beating them. I'm taking the ML too.
PREDICTED SCORE : VIKINGS 24 STEELERS 19
Wednesday, September 13, 2017
NFL WEEK 2 PLAY
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
* HOUSTON +6 at CINCINNATTI
After week 1, all I can say is you can not, and will not win them all in this business. I am now on to week 2, and I am going with a team, I expect to bounce back. The Texans didn't look good at all last week vs Jacksonville, and I think it was mostly the statue of a QB that started and played most of the game. Their O line got killed, but I think it was mostly due to the fact that the Jaguars defense looked fast and furious. They had 10 sacks! Their head coach, Doug Marrone, knows how to coach a defense, and Fournette looked like the real deal vs a good Texans defense. I think starting Watson was the right move, and what they should have done from the get-go. He will give them a better chance to win, because of his mobility, and I believe he will continue to grow and get better. Houston's O line took a hit from having a Tackle missing, due to a holdout, and they will be missing another starter on the line, due to injury. With all that being said, I still think they can win this game. Pretty much all of their defense is healthy, and most of the important players on offense, plus they own the Bengals. Cincinnati is a team that should be worried. I thought before the season started, that they would possibly make it back to the play-offs, because Marvin Lewis is a solid coach. He is, but I think his time is done with this team. They probably should have fired him two years ago. I also think the fact that Dalton has always folded so badly in prime time games and in the play-offs, that the Bengals should look elsewhere for a QB. This last performance in week 1, by Dalton, was historically bad. Losing 20-0 in you home opener is just pathetic. I do expect them to play a lot better, but this is a prime time game vs a team they have not been able to beat. Even Tom Savage was able to lead the Texans to a victory over the Bengals last year. I think Houston just has more going for them and their head coach still has a future. I say the Texans win this game, but I will grab all of those points, just in case.
* HOUSTON +6 at CINCINNATTI
After week 1, all I can say is you can not, and will not win them all in this business. I am now on to week 2, and I am going with a team, I expect to bounce back. The Texans didn't look good at all last week vs Jacksonville, and I think it was mostly the statue of a QB that started and played most of the game. Their O line got killed, but I think it was mostly due to the fact that the Jaguars defense looked fast and furious. They had 10 sacks! Their head coach, Doug Marrone, knows how to coach a defense, and Fournette looked like the real deal vs a good Texans defense. I think starting Watson was the right move, and what they should have done from the get-go. He will give them a better chance to win, because of his mobility, and I believe he will continue to grow and get better. Houston's O line took a hit from having a Tackle missing, due to a holdout, and they will be missing another starter on the line, due to injury. With all that being said, I still think they can win this game. Pretty much all of their defense is healthy, and most of the important players on offense, plus they own the Bengals. Cincinnati is a team that should be worried. I thought before the season started, that they would possibly make it back to the play-offs, because Marvin Lewis is a solid coach. He is, but I think his time is done with this team. They probably should have fired him two years ago. I also think the fact that Dalton has always folded so badly in prime time games and in the play-offs, that the Bengals should look elsewhere for a QB. This last performance in week 1, by Dalton, was historically bad. Losing 20-0 in you home opener is just pathetic. I do expect them to play a lot better, but this is a prime time game vs a team they have not been able to beat. Even Tom Savage was able to lead the Texans to a victory over the Bengals last year. I think Houston just has more going for them and their head coach still has a future. I say the Texans win this game, but I will grab all of those points, just in case.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
ANOTHER NFL WEEK 1 PLAY
WEEK 1 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
*** SAINTS +4(-125) at VIKINGS
I really do think the Saints are going to have a good year in '17. Everyone says they have to stay healthy. Well, of course, just like any other year. The Saints have had some bad luck with that in the most recent seasons, so hopefully they are due for some breaks. Since the middle of the '15 season, I have been contemplating this year's defense, as being a good one. I expected it to be good, as long as the Saints made some good moves to keep improving it, and I believe they have. If I were a Saints fan(which I am), I would be excited about this season's D. I am also hyped about the running game they have. They will have a true three-headed monster, much like '09, and they will have two dimensions on offense, of how they can beat you. I think losing Sneed for this game, doesn't help, but also doesn't hurt all that much. I believe in the other WR's and the running game, so I think they will go 2-1 without him. I see the Vikings as a possible play-off team this year. They have a nasty defense, and they really missed out on having no running game last year. They have fixed that, in my opinion. Bradford is decent, and will have to do less this year. I do think the Saints will be able to get to him and force some mistakes, possibly. Minnesota also has kind of weak passing attack. Their defense can be ran on, as well. New Orleans hasn't won an opener the last three seasons, but the last one they did win, was in '13, which ended up being a good season. I think they will start this season off well, and win this game. I suggest taking it now, and buying it up to +4. I am an insurance policy guy. I believe they win this game, but the worst case scenario would be Vikings by three or four.
PREDICTED SCORE : SAINTS 26 VIKINGS 17
*** SAINTS +4(-125) at VIKINGS
I really do think the Saints are going to have a good year in '17. Everyone says they have to stay healthy. Well, of course, just like any other year. The Saints have had some bad luck with that in the most recent seasons, so hopefully they are due for some breaks. Since the middle of the '15 season, I have been contemplating this year's defense, as being a good one. I expected it to be good, as long as the Saints made some good moves to keep improving it, and I believe they have. If I were a Saints fan(which I am), I would be excited about this season's D. I am also hyped about the running game they have. They will have a true three-headed monster, much like '09, and they will have two dimensions on offense, of how they can beat you. I think losing Sneed for this game, doesn't help, but also doesn't hurt all that much. I believe in the other WR's and the running game, so I think they will go 2-1 without him. I see the Vikings as a possible play-off team this year. They have a nasty defense, and they really missed out on having no running game last year. They have fixed that, in my opinion. Bradford is decent, and will have to do less this year. I do think the Saints will be able to get to him and force some mistakes, possibly. Minnesota also has kind of weak passing attack. Their defense can be ran on, as well. New Orleans hasn't won an opener the last three seasons, but the last one they did win, was in '13, which ended up being a good season. I think they will start this season off well, and win this game. I suggest taking it now, and buying it up to +4. I am an insurance policy guy. I believe they win this game, but the worst case scenario would be Vikings by three or four.
PREDICTED SCORE : SAINTS 26 VIKINGS 17
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