Thursday, February 4, 2016

SUPER BOWL 50 PREDICTION & PLAY

****  CAROLINA  ML(-235)    VS     DENVER

Well, they kept saying it last year, and they keep saying again this year, that defense wins championships.  Defense alone does not, though.  The better defense lost again last year, and that has happened several times in this era, because the game is more about offense than it has ever been.  I will admit you have to play good defense, but a great balance is the true formula.  All I hear is about how great the Broncos defense is.  While I will agree it is the best in the league, but I don't think it is all that great.  They gave up 18 PPG.  That is actually only a point less than the Panthers, too.  It might even be a little deceiving, because the Panthers got up on people early in a lot of games and then played a lot more conservatively and gave up garbage points in some games.  I think these two defenses are pretty equal, but I will give Denver the edge, because they have the better secondary.  I think the defensive lines are pretty equal and Carolina has the better LB/playmaker in Luke Keuchly.  This guy is the best LB I've seen in ages, and can do a lot on the field.  Von Miller is more of just a pass rusher.  The best pass rusher in the league, too, but still just more of a pass rusher.  I think the Broncos can definitely slow the Panthers down, but Carolina has an X factor in Cam Newton.  This guy is just such a rare physical talent that is hard for any defense to stop.  I was doubting during the season, but I am ready to admit that he is the MVP.  This guy had a great year - 35 TD's 10 INTs passing and we all know he's the best rushing QB, as well.  This team has rushed for 100 yards or more in 31 straight games, and that is mostly because of Cam.  I don't know what's more valuable than that.  If he gets hurt early in the game, they have no shot, whatsoever.  Now, that is something worthy of being an MVP.
I don't think people are giving the Panther's D enough credit, because I think it's almost, if not just as good as Denver's.  Denver's is also designed mostly to stop the pass.  They just beat a Patriots team with 3 starters missing from the O line and no running game at all.  They barely won by 2 and so many are so impressed.  I'm not.  I also think that Denver's offense going up against Carolina's D may be an issue.  They do have a pretty good running game, although nothing special.  Their WR's haven't performed too well this season, but are capable of playing at a very high level.  Peyton is now limited in what he can do, but this is his last game, so there could be that final surge.  I would actually take this Panthers D against Peyton 10 years ago.  I know that sounds crazy, but they can pressure him and have a good secondary with a great, playmaking LB.  Peyton struggled, back in the day, with real good defenses like this.  They got him out of the pocket and he was ineffective.  Ask the Pats of 03-04 and the Steelers of '05.  The Chargers just owned him, too.  I think that just may have been him choking big time.  This year is a little different, because he's getting rid of the ball quick as usual, but he is just managing the game with shorter passes.  I still think they can harass him and it won't be easy against this defense.  This Panther team seems special with the way they have been playing.  They have been dominating and have won 17 games.  They should be favored by what they are.  I think this game could be really close and come down to a last second FG 23-20.  So, I am taking the Money Line.  Enjoy!

PREDICTED SCORE : PANTHERS 27  BRONCOS 20