Thursday, September 7, 2017

WEEK 1 POWER PLAY 2017

**** TENNESSEE  -2 (bought down to -1 for (-140) to insure, just in case)  vs OAKLAND

The Titans are going to be an improved team in '17, from what they were last year.  I think it starts with them adding two new CB's, with rookie, Adoree Jackson, and adding free-agent, Logan Ryan.  The secondary was one of their weaknesses last year.  I think they can be improved and this will help their defense a lot, because it's going along with a good front seven.  I also think that they have added weapons, which they desperately needed.  Two of their top leading receivers from a year ago were their TE and RB.  That's not good, so they added a solid veteran, Eric Decker, and drafted a stud, Corey Davis.  They also drafted a speedy, potential weapon, Taywan Taylor.  I think Mariota will also build on last year and have a good year, because now he actually has some people to throw to.  This team went 9-7 last year, and critics say it's because they played in the worst division.  That may be true, but you also have to remember Mariota missed the last game, and they were limited on offense.
   Oakland is a team, that didn't do much to improve on defense, from last year.  I don't think their draft was that good, but I guess we will see.  They will have mostly the same starters on defense, from last year, and the defense was extremely shaky.  I think adding Cook and Lynch was not bad, but Lynch's best years are behind him, I think.  He has never played for a team, that had a passing game like this, so he should benefit from that.  I could see him starting out this year fast, and then fading.  He has a lot of miles on him.  The biggest discrepancy of the Raiders last year was the lack of quality wins.  They only beat three teams with winning records last year, whom were all one game above .500, and only one of those teams made the play-offs.  Oakland's 12-4 record last year, was one of the gaudiest I've ever seen.  They barely beat their opponents, on average, and the only tough defense they played last year, the Chiefs, they failed to score more than 13 on, and were swept in the series.  Looking at the Raiders' schedule, and how tough it is this year, I don't think they win any more than eight or nine games in '17.  I always tend to look at who the coach of a team is, and how good he is, and I don't think much of Del Rio.  I think he's above average, and that's where it ends.  Tennessee has a good offensive mind, as their head coach, and Dick LeBeau on the defensive side.  It's like I always say, two heads are better than one.  I see the Titans as a play-off team this season, and here's how I see the game going.  Tennessee was able to hold Oakland to only 17 points in a match from last season.  They lost the game by a TD, but that was with no weapons to throw to and a weak secondary.  The Titans are a new look team this year, and it will be different.  I see this as what should be a pretty close game, and even could come down to the wire.  I also see in my vision, a home opener win for the Titans, as they start a good season off the right way.

PREDICTED SCORE :  TITANS  24   RAIDERS 21

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PLAY

** MINNESOTA  -25    vs    BUFFALO

COACH FLECK'S DEBUT!

So here we are at the start of a brand new football season and I'm going to get it cranked by picking a couple of college games.  Now, for those who have followed, you should know that I will not play too many college games.  I specialize in mostly NFL forecasting, but here and there my sportsbook site gives me a free bet with a new deposit, and I like to re-deposit in the beginning and cash out at the end.  This means that this first straight bet play is guaranteed.  If I lose they refund me, so I think this is worth it.  Caoch P.J. Fleck will be making his debut with the Gophers, and to me he's making his real debut to CFB.  I think he's an extraordinary coach, and did a phenomenal job with Western Michigan last year.  I also think that good coaches usually make a statement in their first game with a new team.  He did lose his first game with W. Michigan in '13, and also went 1-11 in that first season, but that was different.  He had to totally build that program there, and that's not the case with Minnesota.  They already have had a pretty decent football program, going 9-4 last year in the Big 10, and have been pretty consistent on the defensive side of the ball.  They are only bringing back 5 starters on defense this year, but 2 of those players are their best defensive players, and their 2 sack leaders from last year.  There is also enough upperclassmen on the defense to not lack too much experience.  They're bringing back 7 starters on the offense and that includes their 2 headed monster of a running game, who accounted for over 1,700 rushing yards last season.  I really think the Gophers could be a contender and surprise team in the Big 10 west this year.  As for Buffalo, they were just awful on offense last year, and their defense was really not better.  I do think they can and probably will be improved this year on both sides, but I also don't see them being on the level of this Minnesota team.

PREDICTED SCORE : GOPHERS 35   BULLS 6

Another play I kind of like -

* LSU -14  vs  BYU

I think the Tigers have the top 2 coordinators in the country, and while they're only bringing back 5 starters on defense, they too have a lot of upperclassmen coming back.  They also have a great offensive back field, which includes arguably the best RB in CFB.  Arden Key will be out, but I think they've got some good talent that's come in, and I believe there is a talent gap between these programs.  I do think the Cougars are a good, hard-nosed team, but I don't think their defense will be able to stop Matt Canada, and his offense for four quarters.  Speaking of Canada, this guy is really hard to prepare for, and has said that he has never had talent like LSU.  I think he will have some fun with the RB's he has and will run a lot of different, intelligent plays this year, that will make the Tigers' offense hard to stop.  On defense, I think they should be just fine, especially for this game, because Aranda is the best defensive coordinator right now.

PREDICTED SCORE :  TIGERS 34   COUGARS 16

Thursday, February 2, 2017

SUPER BOWL LI ANALYSIS

*** NEW ENGLAND  -3    vs     ATLANTA

Let me start this off by saying that since before this season started, I thought that if the Patriots were healthy at the right time, they would win it all this year.  I have also thought, throughout this whole year, that they have looked like the best team.  I've thought they really have had the top defense after their first few games.  This team shut out a play-off team 27-0, while having a third-string, rookie QB start for them.  I know the Texans aren't a strong play-off team, but WOW!  That just shows you how good this team around Tom Brady really is.  Just look at how good they were early last season.  When they were healthy, they were phenomenal, and then they started to have players drop like flies.  By the time they played Denver in the play-offs,  their offensive line was depleted, and they had to face that Broncos rush. Well, this year they are fully healthy, with the exception of Gronk, and I think Brady has shown he doesn't really need him.  Martelus Bennett is a solid TE, and they have several other weapons.  Edleman is a star, in my opinion, and I think having Dion lewis healthy, makes their offense super dangerous.  All I am hearing is how good Atlanta's offense is, but they don't realize how unstoppable Brady and co. are.  They have a very versatile running game, which consists of Blount, who will pierce holes in your D line, and they have speedy Lewis, and White, who can make big plays catching the ball.  Their offensive line has been stellar, as well, protecting the middle, which is what Brady needs.  Now, Atlanta's RB's are pretty deadly, and all I have been hearing is that NE's LB's can't cover too good.  I will expect them to DO THEIR JOBS Sunday, and for the Pats's No. 2 ranked rushing defense to contain these backs and not let them do too much.  It seems like Belichick always takes something away that offenses do, and it's sometimes taking a player completely out of the game.  Well, good luck stopping Julio, cause he is a physical freak, but I have seen teams contain him this year and win.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Belichick let him have no more than about 7-10 catches for about 10 yards per catch, and nothing else.  They will probably completely shut down either Sanu or Gabriel.
     On to the Falcon defense, I will say they can stop the run pretty well, but teams that have beat them, mostly exploit their secondary.  That shouldn't surprise anyone when they are ranked 28th in the league.  I honestly think Atlanta gives up too many points to be a real champion.  They can rush the passer, but it's mostly blitzes, and Brady gets rid of the ball in like 2 seconds.  Not to mention, that the Pats can run the football and neutralize that rush.  Its a lot easier to look like a pass rushing machine when you play a bad offensive line like Seattle's was, and a Green Bay offense, that doesn't have any RB to hand off to, or split out, really.  Atlanta's secondary is young and vulnerable, and while I think Brady respects them to the fullest, he knows that he's going to score points.  Belichick could be thinking that he needs to score 38-40 to win the game, so watch out for a surprise onside kick.  Opening kick-off, maybe?  Sounds crazy, but Atlanta's offense is crazy good, but if you look at what they did vs real stingy D's, like the Pats, this year, they did't fair all that well.  They put up 23 vs the Broncos, who started a raw rookie QB in that game.  Just think if Denver had a good QB playing that game, and they could have actually moved the ball.  Then they got held to just 15 by Philly, in a game they lost.  I know that was the regular season, and that the Falcons are playing real good ball right now, but this Patriots defense is pretty stout.  I think Malcolm Butler is a good CB, and could prove himself in this game.  I'd also watch out for Julio Jones choking with some dropped balls, because I've seen him do it before.  We've all seen Matt Ryan choke, but I think he is as focused as ever.  All those people that said NE's D was overrated, right before the AFC championship, have been debunked.   They shut down one of the league's best offenses, and hottest teams.  Bell did get knocked out, but he only had 3 YPC beforehand, and they did not let Brown beat them.  That's a lot easier said than done, too.
     I also seem to stick with the theory of a good defense almost always beats a good offense.  There's a reason why the No.1 scoring defense has beat the No.1 scoring offense in 4 out of 5 Superbowls.  Let's talk about that one time the defense lost.  That's because that '89 49ers team had the best offense, and also had the No.3 scoring defense, and Denver had a shitty offense.  I always take balance over anything, because it's real important, and the Pats are more balanced, by beating their opponents by an average of 12 PPG, while Atlanta is only by 8 PPG, and also giving up a whopping 25PPG on defense, and even 20 PPG in the playoffs.  I also am very aware that the league was weak this year, but the Pats dominated mostly everyone they played.  The AFC was the better conference, clearly, in my opinion, and I thought the NFC was just shit.  Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan have done great jobs this year, but now they have to go against the big boys, and they may just be out matched.  I have a great prop bet for Dion Lewis' receptions at OVER 2.5 $$$, and OVER 24.5 receiving yards for him, as well.  I think he could be a big factor, and make some plays, baby.  I'll predict he has at least 4-5 catches for at least 40-50 yards receiving.  I also have a teaser that I don't think will lose 7PT 2T Teaser - Patriots +4, OVER 51 points.  ENJOY YA'LL!

PREDICTED SCORE : PATRIOTS 34   FALCONS 23

Thursday, November 10, 2016

NFL POWER PLAY

                          REFUND SUNDAY

Due to my last big play I gave being a total failure, I am here to make up for it.  This next play I am giving is a guarantee.  I will refund your ticket if it loses.  Show me something that showed you bet, and up to a certain amount, I will pay for.  If you were following me all year through my package and taking just the plays I've given, you would still be up a decent amount.  I do want to make up for a loss, that was supposed to be my biggest play all year, though.  Take this and I guarantee it.  I'm that confident.

NEW ENGLAND -7.5  vs   SEATTLE

Once again, I will say that the Hawks are really not that good.  They'll probably end up 9-6-1, and that's in a sad division and crappy conference this year.  This is a game they will definitely lose.  Not only do they lose, but it will be kinda ugly, and I see it as a wake up call.  For one, they are on a long trip on a short week.  They are also missing Bennett, still, who is probably their best defensive player.  Chancellor may be out too.  Regardless, the Patriots are just way better, and they are coming off a bye and will be more than ready for this rematch, since Superbowl 49.  As watery as the league is this season, I think the Patriots are a great team, and I can see them going 15-1.  They probably won't end up less than 14-2.

PREDICTED SCORE : PATRIOTS 31  SEAHAWKS 10

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

2016 $$$$$$*****PLAY OF THE YEAR******$$$$$$

This piece here is my formal business letter to all prospective clients for the future Mo$$VegaS Sports service site, that we hope to have up real soon.  As soon as next season, so for now all the plays I give are free.  I am on trial here to earn your business.  I have a couple clients I am currently servicing, whom have trusted in my knowledge.  One doesn't even have to know football, and just let me guide you to a winning season of profit at the end.  My mission is to provide service to all of your football prognosticating needs.  In other words, I'm going to give you quality football plays, mostly NFL, some college, that have a high percentage chance of winning.  I will also give free picks, here and there, for those who buy the season package.  I will also give free basketball picks, college and pro, to all members, but not too much, because as I said, I want to sell quality picks.  I want to instill the most value that I can into the customers time and money.  Starting off, I will guarantee that I make you at least as much as the season costs, and if not it's a full refund.  Now, that's a little bit about my business, so let me tell you a little bit about me.  I'm Brian Moss.  I was born and raised right outside of New Orleans, and I also lived in Vegas for a couple, few years after Hurricane Katrina.  I have an extensive background in sales and hospitality, but I like to consider my occupation as a hustler.  What I mean by that is that I do whatever it takes to bring home the bacon crisp, ya feel me?  Now I moved back home after my time in Vegas, because I wasn't prepared to make it professionally, yet, and I needed to be closer to family and where I was from again, at the time.  I have been handicapping NFL and college football since the season of '95.  I was looking at spreads in '94 and watching games, and really just trying to figure it out.  Anyway I have a lot of experience and I know where to turn when the money is going to come in.  Now I'm not telling you I will win every play I give you, because I wouldn't be being honest.  These aren't locks I'm selling.  These are plays that have a very good chance to win.  That is why I am working off commissions.  If I don't make you anything, then I don't make anything  The customer is the bread and butter of my business and will always come first.  I want to service each one with honesty, integrity and the same consistency as every client, or prospect.  You do something special for the company, then we're going to do something very special for you.

So, on to the service.  For those who really follow me and really know what I do should know that I am 12-3-2 in NFL picks this year.(That includes all plays)  Money Plays are 9-5-1 overall(That's college and pro)  I don't expect anyone to know these actual numbers, but feel free to go look them up from picks I post.  This play that I'm giving today is my biggest play of the year.  I usually say to take all of what you were going to load on all other plays, and just put it on this one play.  I say double that for this one.  I also want you to put something affordable on the MoneyLine.  On to the matchup, I think LSU is really the only team that has as many players, with as much speed and athleticism, as Alabama does.  The Tide do look like world beaters, and spread killers right now, but they do still have a true freshman QB.  I'd say they've beat some good teams, but do any of those teams have the kind of level of talent that the Tigers have?  No way.  If you can't already tell how much that idiot coach was holding them back after 3 games, 3 good wins and 3 school records broken, then you definitely will know it after this game.  Nick Saban said he looks at LSU as a 4-0 team, which if they didn't get caught up in their emotions last November, they would be, with a different coach.  I do want to say that I have messed up in the past going against Saban and the Tide.  You won't win much backing their oppositions ATS, but when I've taken LSU over them I am 3-0.  That doesn't mean much, but what I am saying is that when I thought Bama would get upset by Tennessee, I took a serious risk and failed.  I saw in that game that the Vols were just not that good, and that the Tide really are, but I learned from my mistake.  I should have known that the Vols don't get the kind of talent that can come close to beating Alabama.  LSU does have this kind of talent.  Not to mention, they have the best player in the land, Fournette, who is an absolute beast.  He's the best college RB I think I've ever seen.  This year he gets to play Bama, being set up for success.  He won't be running into a wall of 9 defenders.  I think they will run out of the shotgun and spread em out , and even put Guice on the field with him.  "Remember when you did something bad when you were little, and your sister would say OOOOHH you in trouble, well Alabama Crimson Tide, OOOHHH you in trouble" - Michael Irving.  But really, good luck stopping that, when you've got 3 good WR's that are big, physical and fast.  The Tide's starting CB E. Jackson is out too, which only hurts.  I think Jalen Hurts is a real good player and is an outstanding runner, but Death Valley on a Saturday night is a hostile environment that he can't even fathom, at this point.  With as good as the LSU CB's are, I think he will throw 2 INT's.  I think another huge factor in this game will be the experience and team chemistry that the Tigers have, and the fact that Bama really doesn't have all that much.  I really can't wait to watch what I think will be the best CFB game all year.  So I'm laying it all on the table here.  I'm anti-upping my chips.  Everyone that wants in, get in.  Everyone that wants out, GET OUT!  LSU is beating this team Saturday.  Load up on the points and put something on the ML and enjoy!

***** LSU +7  vs  ALABAMA
** Moneyline +250

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

NFL Plays

It's week 8 already! I think I have a decent idea of what's going on. I think ya take Atlanta to bounce back at home this week vs the Packers. Atlanta still has that dynamic offense, but leaky defense. They made a bad decision in OT last week to lose by 3 to San Diego, and let's hope they've learned from it. Last year they had a major meltdown and just faded completely in the end.  Now they have lost two in a row, but by one point on the road to one of the top teams, and then to the Chargers who are definitely the best 3-4 team in the league. I know their defense is shaky, but their offense is great. I really do think Atlanta is much better this year, due to the play of Matt Ryan. Last year he was just kind of bad, and now this year he has gone ape shit with stats.   Green Bay is very injured, and just not that good this year, and I will continue to say that, most probably.

** ATLANTA -2.5(-135) vs GREEN BAY
I'm buying it down, and I suggest that, or maybe ML, for insurance

Predicted Score : Falcons 38 Packers 27

I also think you load on New England this week at the Bills.  The Pats just got shut out at home this year, for the first time in a long while, by the Bills. Now, the Patriots always seem to get revenge on their division foes, especially Buffalo. In this game, they really will be seeking to shed blood, and now they have Brady playing, and not a third string rookie QB. Watch out!  I could see New England in a shut out this time. I've seen that story before

 *** NEW ENGLAND -6 at BUFFALO

Predicted Sxore ; Pats 30 Bills 17

Thursday, October 6, 2016

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY

** LOUISIANA TECH +3(-130)   VS   WESTERN KENTUCKY

I'm still trying to figure out why La Tech is  an underdog at home in this match.  I guess it must be that they have given up a lot of points and W. Kentucky hasn't really, and they play better defense than Tech, usually.  Well, the Bulldogs can play in defensive battles, because they lost a 21-20 nail biter to Arkansas earlier in the season.  I know they blew a rather late lead, but they're not supposed to be able to win a road game like that.  You know what "they" say.  If it seems too obvious, then stay away, or go the other way.  As much as I see it as going with the obvious, I just can't find a reason to not like the Bulldogs at home tonight.  Especially, because the last time they played the Hilltoppers at home 2 years ago, they stomped them 59-10, and in last year's match in W. Kentucky, they lost in a shootout by 3.  It seems as if this game could be a lot like that one, so I will take the 3 just in case La Tech can't pull it out.  I really think they win, though.  Another nice fact, is that W. Kentucky has lost one game at home in five years, so they are really good there, and not as much on the road, and the Bulldogs barely lost last year.  I think Tech is a little better this year, and they have given up a lot of points, but it was to some very high scoring teams.  As I said, they hung in a defensive battle in Arkansas.  The last home game the Hilltoppers lost was to Vanderbilt, and we know that's not really an SEC team.  This should be a real good game.  I will be watching this and not the weak NFL game that will be on too.  GO BULLDOGS!